Bryan Little’s Contract Will Eventually Be Regrettable For Winnipeg

GM Kevin Cheveldayoff likes putting pen to paper on extensions and he locked up second line centre Bryan Little prior to the preseason.

Little’s new contract will pay him an average of $5.29m per season over the next six seasons. On the surface that looks like a solid price point for a second line centre who produced at a 0.79 points per game rate last season. Had it not been for injuries, he would have produced 65 points.

Speaking of injuries, that is the reason why the Jets may live to regret this contract.

LONG TERM DEAL FOR INJURY PRONE PLAYER

For the majority of Bryan Little’s career, he has been relatively healthy. He only missed 20 games combined from 2008-2014. However, in the past three seasons, he has missed a combined 60 games.

There’s always a risk when signing a player to a long-term contract, but there’s an even bigger risk when that player has a recent history of injuries.

Cheveldayoff is banking on the fact that Little’s injury trouble is behind him, and he likely was able to save some dollars due to the injury history.

It’s not a bad bet, but it’s one that should be taken with a grain of salt.

IS LITTLE WORTH THE MONEY IF HE STAYS HEALTHY?

In a word; yes. In two words; of course!

The 11-year veteran has quietly become one of the top second line pivots in the NHL. He has scored at above a 60-point pace in the past three seasons, and he shouldn’t have any issues maintaining that pace with the wingers he gets to play with.

In the dead puck era, very few NHL players score higher than 70 points, and if they do they are considered elite. Players of that ilk rake in around $8m+.

Players that score around 60 points should be considered stars, and they get paid between $6m and $7m, so getting Little at $5.29m is a bargain.

Mark Scheifele is the number one guy down the middle and Adam Lowry may be the best fit on the third line so Little’s job on the second line looks pretty safe.

Nic Petan and Kyle Connor currently play on the wing but both have the potential to play centre in the NHL. For the time being though, the job is Little’s.

HOW WILL THE LIFE OF THE CONTRACT GO?

Bryan Little is 29 years old today and he will be turning 30 on November 12. By the end of the contract, Little will be 36 years old and will not be producing at a level warranting his cap hit. Most players start to decline around 30.

If he stays healthy throughout the life of the contract, then you can say Cheveldayoff made a good call. I expect Little to be productive in the first two years of the contract. The final four years are when things may get a little dicey.

All in all, it doesn’t look like this will be a very good contract for the Winnipeg Jets in the near future.