Winnipeg Jets: Nikolaj Ehlers Deserves Our Appreciation
Nikolaj Ehlers is a former ninth overall pick. He just has been frequently overshadowed by teammates Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, and also the Winnipeg Jets lack of success the past few seasons. He still deserves credit for improving on his rookie and sophomore success.
Nikolaj Ehlers was drafted at number nine in 2014, and the team made the playoffs that year, albeit with him in juniors. They haven’t sniffed it since, but he and his teammates are looking to get back to playing meaningful games in April and beyond.
Patrik Laine gets most of the press in Winnipeg. He’s just 19, and he scored 36 goals. The former franchise record was 29 by Ilya Kovalchuk. Mark Scheifele is, at 24, one of the best young pivots in the game. Blake Wheeler leads the team in scoring. It’s easy to get lost on a suddenly talent-laden roster.
Statistical Success
Nikolaj Ehlers is technically on the same pace of scoring, at .78 ppg. He can easily match the 64 points he had a season ago, and while most would like to see him top 70, this is still an improvement. Ehlers scored 25 goals last year, and is already at 17 in 37 contests. This puts him on a ridiculous 38 goal pace.
Usually, extrapolating from current goal totals can be misleading. It is important to note then, that Ehlers’ 16% shooting percentage is likely to come down, but it’s not at a completely unsustainable number. The league average is 9.1%, but good scorers can run them up into the teens. Anders Lee, for example, has 22 goals with a 25.9 shooting clip. Lee is a good scorer, but that is a mirage.
Even strength goals are often a measure of a very good scoring team. Any decent team needs to find success on the power play. But can you score when the ice isn’t tilted? Power play goals are harder to come by against better teams, so it’s good to have a mix. Ideally, about 20% of your goals are on the man-advantage, the Jets sit at around 27%.
Winnipeg is currently 11th in even strength scoring, and Nikolaj Ehlers leads the way with 11 tallies, three more than Scheifele and linemate Laine (a really sweet nickname). He is second on the team in shots on goal, even at around 15 minutes per game. Ehlers also leads the Jets with five game-winners, more than any other two Jets combined.
Advanced Metrics
Ehlers boasts a Corsi percentage at 51.3, slightly above league average (50, duh). This is, however, higher than both his linemates, Scheifele, Tyler Myers and Blake Wheeler. He is getting just about half of his draws in the offensive zone, too. He isn’t a one-trick pony, but don’t expect any Selke votes. This isn’t to suggest he’s a better shot suppressor than the men listed above, but he might be a better shot creator.
He is currently tied for 43rd in the league at goals per 60 minutes at 1.14 (per Natural Stat Trick). This is ahead of guys like Connor McDavid, Vlad Tarasenko and even Laine himself. He’s 32nd in shots per 60 minutes. Get the puck to the net and good things will happen, and they’re happening at a good clip for Ehlers this season.
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What’s Next?
Keep shooting, Saint Nikolaj. One of the fastest players in the league, he can use that speed to get in on defenses and keep puck handlers honest. He also possesses impressive handling skills and, clearly, a great wrister. He’s able to hold the puck through the defense and get into the zone with skill and poise, for a young gun.
The Winnipeg Jets have ridden surprising goaltending and good scoring to a playoff spot at current standing, 37 games in. He’s been a catalyst, and he’s deserving of some love for it. The Jets knew, I suppose, as they handed him an extension for seven-years and $42 million. Let’s just hope he keeps improving.