The Danish word for regret is beklagelse. I often ponder whether the Winnipeg Jets look back on their decision to let Nikolaj (“Nik”) Ehlers depart in free agency with soulful beklagelse.
Ehlers was a polarizing figure in Winnipeg. Some lauded his offensive gifts; others were wary of his durability and decision-making. I stake a claim in the former camp and believe his absence this year has had a deleterious impact on the Jets’ success. How so?
Overtime
The Winnipeg Jets have five wins and ten losses in fifteen overtime games this year. Conversely, last year the Jets went to overtime 17 times and won 13 of those contests. That’s an eight-point delta in the standings based on overtime results alone—enough to have them comfortably in a Wild Card spot right now.
From a macro perspective, the Jets went from having the best record in overtime to the worst in successive seasons. Regression is the Occam’s razor explanation for the difference in overtime success, as it’s likely the Jets’ performance would have fallen somewhat back toward the mean.
However, NHL 3-on-3 overtime has evolved from a chaotic, end-to-end spectacle into a highly strategic possession game—a “keep-away” chess match. While the format was designed to maximize scoring chances and reduce shootouts, coaches and players have adapted by prioritizing puck control over immediate risk-taking.
The current NHL leader in Corsi—the most prevalent possession metric going—is none other than Nik Ehlers. Go figure. Ehlers scored two game-winning goals in overtime during the 2024–25 regular season with the Jets, but more importantly, he possessed the puck. That allowed Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Josh Morrissey to rest, and it created a rotation skilled enough to control play in overtime.
Power play
What’s the key to a successful power play? Zone entries. Tracking data has placed Ehlers in the 100th percentile for controlled zone entries per 60 minutes, rivalling—or even exceeding—stalwarts like Connor McDavid in certain entry metrics.
Last year, the Jets converted on 23.8% of their power-play opportunities, good for eighth in the league. This year, that number has dropped to 17.7% (23rd). Coincidence? Could be—but Carolina’s power play has improved by two percentage points this year, which is the difference between 20th and 12th overall.
Ehlers totalled 22 power-play points in 2024–25, ranking third on the team in power-play points per game (0.33). He has been ostensibly replaced by Cole Perfetti, who has a meagre four power-play points. The drop-off here is stark. I think it is very reasonable to posit that the Jets' struggles on the power play this year stem from Ehlers absence.
Secondary scoring
Secondary scoring has plagued the Jets this year. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Gabriel Vilardi account for 39% of the team’s scoring. Outside of the big three, the Jets’ leading scorer is Alex Iafallo—a product, in part, of his insertion into the top line with Scheifele and Connor.
Unless you have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, you can’t be that top-heavy. Ehlers provided a legitimate threat on the second line, the likes of which Jonathan Toews and Cole Perfetti have been unable to replace.
Gustav Nyquist, Cole Koepke, and Tanner Pearson were also acquired as part of what appears to be a Moneyball attempt to stitch together secondary scoring—Frankenstein’s Monster–style. I like Koepke as a player, but needless to say, the pitchforks are out, and fans have been monster-hunting.
I do understand the critiques of Ehlers’ game. He can be unconventional to play with, and the durability issues were legitimate, but I think the Jets drastically underrated his specific skill set. More than ever, speed and puck control are paramount in the NHL. Heck, Jets fans are excited about the newly acquired Isak Rosen—a much lesser version of Ehlers right now. I’d be interested to know whether the Jets organization is content with its decision, or bothered by lingering beklagelse.