Mark Scheifele’s March: Chasing—and Passing—Dale Hawerchuk

Mark Scheifele is 13 goals away from becoming the most prolific goal scorer in Winnipeg Jets history. Fifteen years ago, it would have seemed like heresy for anyone to supplant Dale Hawerchuk’s goal-scoring legacy. Now it’s becoming a reality.

To be clear, this distinction is specific to goals scored while a Winnipeg Jet. Of further note, the Atlanta Thrashers do not count for anything. Ever. If you consider the Thrashers a part of Jets history, then you and I are not friends. Celebrating Scheifele overtaking Ilya Kovalchuk’s goal tallies in Atlanta was asinine behavior and should have been reprimanded. But I digress.

The fascinating part of Scheifele’s inevitable accomplishment is that it comes on the heels of perhaps his best season as a Winnipeg Jet. At age 33, 15 seasons into his career, Scheifele is playing as well as—or better than—ever. That is atypical in a league where the age apex is typically 25 years old. It’s an incredible trajectory.

But how did we get here?

Drafted seventh overall in 2011, Mark Scheifele was the Winnipeg Jets’ (2.0 version) first NHL draft selection. At the time, there was consternation about whether the Jets should take Sean Couturier, another prolific centreman who ended up going eighth overall to the Philadelphia Flyers. Advantage, Jets. Dale Hawerchuk was instrumental in the pick, as he coached Scheifele during his OHL tenure with the Barrie Colts. History, it seems, is not without a sense of irony.

From the 2011 draft class, only one player—Nikita Kucherov—has had a better overall career than Mark Scheifele. Kucherov was drafted late in the second round: a bona fide steal. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the first overall pick that year, and Scheifele has proven to be a fundamentally more impactful player.

However, the start to Scheifele’s career was murky. Mark suffered from what I colloquialize as “the Bambis.” He had trouble staying vertical and, as a result, had real trouble in tight spaces: controlling the puck and fending off defenders. You could see the talent, but count me among those who had real doubts about his ability to be effective at the NHL level. I was wrong.

It is a testament to Scheifele—and his conditioning—that puck control is now perhaps his greatest skill. Famously working with Gary Roberts each off-season, Scheifele is meticulous with his conditioning and has become masterful with the puck.

What kind of player is Mark Scheifele?

No one will confuse Scheifele with a Selke Award winner, as his contributions are largely offensive. But those contributions are anything but offensive. Scheifele truly is one of the most underrated point-getters in the NHL. His true breakout came in the 2016–2017 season. He finished seventh in scoring that year (32 goals and 50 assists), back when a point-per-game pace was elite. Since the 2011-12 season, Scheifele has scored the 17th most points in the NHL.  

I am a proponent of the stats Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Goals Above Replacement (GAR). While there was a dip in the COVID years, Scheifele has consistently produced not at an elite level but at a very good level:

For his career, Scheifele has a 17.5% shooting percentage. That is 49th all-time for NHL players. While on the surface, that might seem pedestrian, that level of efficiency is an incredible achievement. There are thousands of NHLers in this sample, and he bests the likes of notable snipers such as Alex Ovechkin (13.1%), Brett Hull (15.2%), and Steven Stamkos (16.7%).

In the past five years, Scheifele’s shooting percentage has been 19.5%, which would rank eighth overall. He is judicious with his shots, but I have long maintained he is the Jets’ best pure scorer. Some might quibble, but Kyle Connor falls in with Ovechkin—talented, for sure, but primarily a volume shooter.

Are there warts?

Of course. Scheifele’s defensive effort—especially for a spell in the early 2000s —is not great. He has always been a below-average defender. Toward the tail end of Blake Wheeler’s career, those two became a liability at five-on-five, and it became a legitimate concern for Jets fans.

There are also questions surrounding his leadership acumen.  I am not in the dressing room, but as a two-time All-Star and perennial top-20 scorer (at least in points per game), it is fair to question how captaincy and Team Canada selections have evaded him. This is rank speculation on my part, but I don’t see Scheifele as a “leader of men”. I think he is quirky and a bit reclusive, features that don’t lend themselves to leadership.

Takeaway

Warts aside, Scheifele was recently named NHL Star of the Week and sits sixth in scoring, sandwiched between Macklin Celebrini and David Pastrnak. Yet, his play goes largely ignored outside the confines of the Canada Life Centre. It’s a microcosm of his entire career.

Dale Hawerchuk was a childhood hero, and the reason I wore number 10 when I played. His legacy is cemented—literally and figuratively. Mark Scheifele becoming the top scorer in Winnipeg Jets history does not change that. It does allow us to appreciate a player who often flies under the radar. So, while he never reached the lofty heights of “Ducky,” he will be remembered as a great player, an all-time Jet, and with reverence and appreciation.