The Central Division is unfairly punishing the Winnipeg Jets

Those of a certain vintage remember the Campbell Conference and the Prince of Wales Conference fondly — less for anything hockey-related, but more because fans felt the 1993 switch to geographic names, meant to mirror the NBA and NFL, stripped the league of some of its unique history and character.

But conferences and divisions do matter.

Over the past 10 years, the Central Division has been the winningest in the NHL. Counting stats don’t lie: the Central has won more games, and by a comfortable margin, than any other division. If you shorten that window to the past five years, the dominance becomes even more pronounced.

If we look at the records of the top 15 teams over the past 10 years, the Central Division is represented by six teams. For reference, the Atlantic Division has four, the Metropolitan Division three, and the Pacific Division two. In a Central Division with eight teams, six of them have been perennial playoff contenders. That is parity at its most unforgiving:

This year, the best two teams in the league, the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars, are, you guessed it, in the Central Division. In fact, the Avalanche and Stars have been the best teams by record in the NHL for three years. The Winnipeg Jets are fourth.

This is just plain bad luck. There is an adage that you “have to beat the best to be the best.” I understand that its purpose is to promote mental toughness, but that is of little help when the deck is stacked against you.

Teams play 26 games against divisional rivals, 24 against non-divisional conference opponents, and 32 against the opposite conference. That means Central Division teams play intra-divisional opponents more often than inter-divisional ones. In short, when you play in the best division, you play the best teams more often. And that is just the regular season — its impact is really felt in the playoffs.

Back in the “old” playoff format, the top eight teams from each conference were seeded 1 through 8 based on regular-season points, with the highest-ranked team playing the lowest-ranked team, and a re-seeding mechanism after every round to ensure the top seed always played the lowest remaining seed.

Gary Bettman, in his wisdom, abandoned that “old” format in favour of a more division-centric approach in 2012. It created a playoff system that features more divisional matchups.

Let’s use the Winnipeg Jets’ 2023–24 season to illustrate how unfair this system is. The Jets finished with the third-best record in the NHL that year. Their reward? They faced the Colorado Avalanche in the first round, who finished fourth in the Western Conference and eighth overall. If they had beaten the Avalanche — they lost 4–1 — their second-round opponent would have been the Dallas Stars, who finished first in the Western Conference and second overall. By virtue of being in the Central Division, the Jets’ first two playoff opponents would have been two of the top eight teams in the league.

Under the old model, the Jets would have played the Nashville Predators in the first round and likely would not have seen Dallas or Colorado until the conference final.

Small-market teams like the Winnipeg Jets already have an uphill battle. Playoff games generate revenue. Huge revenue. Yet each year, again by virtue of being in the Central Division, the Jets are mathematically deprived of additional revenue. There is also a Sisyphus complex that sets in. If the Jets were to make the playoffs this year, their first two opponents would likely be the Avalanche and Stars again. It makes pushing the boulder up the hill feel like an exercise in futility.

We can’t really change the divisions. While the COVID-era divisions were fun, they are unrealistic from a travel perspective. The NHL playoff format, however, can be changed. Face of the league Sidney Crosby thinks so: “I like 1-to-8 just because I think the regular season is as difficult as it is, teams should be rewarded.” That’s about as animated as Crosby gets. Change the format, NHL.

This all might sound like sour grapes, and perhaps it is. But when the deck is stacked against you, it’s only natural to ask the dealer to swap out the cards.