The Winnipeg Jets currently sit three points out of the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference. That equates to a paltry 6.4% chance of making the playoffs. However, if we channel our inner Lloyd Christmas — “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” — then perhaps hope remains.
The Winnipeg Whiteout is a tour de force, but if the Jets do make the playoffs, how realistic is it that they can advance meaningfully from the second wild-card spot?
In NHL history, five teams seeded eighth (or their modern equivalent) have reached the Stanley Cup Final. The 2012 Los Angeles Kings are the only eighth seed to win the Cup, while the 1991 Minnesota North Stars and 2006 Edmonton Oilers reached the Final under the old 1–8 seeding format. The 2017 Nashville Predators and 2023 Florida Panthers both reached the Final as the second wild card before losing.
Are there any similarities between those teams and the Winnipeg Jets? The 2023 Panthers and 2012 Kings can act as our benchmark.
2023 Florida Panthers
After winning the Presidents’ Trophy in 2022 (sound familiar?), the Panthers made a bold move by replacing coach Andrew Brunette with former Jets bench boss Paul Maurice. It was bold because Brunette was replaced prior to the 2023 season, allowing Maurice time to implement a more “playoff-ready” defensive system — one that took some time to manifest. Side note: I owe Paul Maurice a mea culpa. It turns out he is a Stanley Cup-calibre coach.
Regular-season injuries and shaky goaltending derailed the Panthers’ season. As a result, making the playoffs required some luck, as the Pittsburgh Penguins sat in pole position in the Eastern Conference down the stretch but gagged away their final two games, allowing the Panthers to squeak in.
Come playoff time, Sergei Bobrovsky, who started the postseason as the backup, took over the net during the first round and played at a Vezina-winning level throughout the rest of the run. He was a Conn Smythe Trophy lock if the Panthers had not been thwarted by the Vegas Golden Knights.
2012 Los Angeles Kings
Like the 2023 Panthers, the Kings underperformed during the 2011–12 regular season, but their historic Cup run was fuelled by a mid-season coaching change and legendary goaltending. Jonathan Quick delivered one of the greatest playoff goaltending performances in NHL history. He posted a 1.41 goals-against average (GAA) and a .946 save percentage in the playoffs.
Advanced metrics show that the Kings were actually a very strong puck-possession team, ranking second in Corsi percentage during the regular season. That suggests they were better than their record indicated and simply needed their shooting luck to turn around, which it did.
The Winnipeg Jets didn’t oust their coach this year and are not a strong puck-possession team — statistically, anyway. What the Jets do have in common with the Panthers and Kings are injuries to key pieces, underperforming relative to expectations, and a goaltender capable of dominating.
The Jets went 2–8–1 with Connor Hellebuyck out of the lineup in November and December. Hypothetically, if they had avoided that injury and managed a 5–5–1 record during that span — which is not unrealistic, given they were 11–7–0 prior to his absence — the Jets would sit comfortably in a playoff position. Obviously, this is a nonsense exercise, but losing the Vezina- and Hart Trophy-winning goaltender for any stretch is impactful.
The Jets would have to face Colorado in the first round and almost certainly Dallas in the second: the two best teams in the league
. As such, this would all come down to goaltending. In addition to the otherworldly performances of Bobrovsky and Quick, Pekka Rinne stole the show for the 2017 Predators. Hellebuyck would need to summon a version of himself not yet seen in the playoffs. We would need Olympics Hellebuyck but even 10% better.
Is it possible? Certainly. But making a Cup run from the eighth seed is rare for a reason. This team is playing better hockey down the stretch, proving that addition by subtraction can work, but by no means are they a juggernaut. Still, it is fun to dream about being the sixth team to make the Final from the eighth seed, or even the second to win the Cup. If it happened, to borrow another Lloyd Christmas-ism, the beer would flow like wine.