Winnipeg Jets vs Nashville Predators: NHL Playoffs Preview
The Winnipeg Jets conquered the Minnesota Wild in round one, in just five games. Now they head to Nashville to take on a Predators powerhouse.
The Winnipeg Jets are in the Western Conference Semifinals. One would think, at 114 points and second overall in the NHL, they would capture home ice. Unfortunately, Nashville was the only team ahead of them in the standings.
This is it. This is what we’ve been waiting for, as fans. For Winnipeg, this might be the ultimate test. This is their version of the Penguins taking on Columbus and Washington before facing… Ottawa in the Conference Final.
Or the year before when they faced Washington and Tampa in the Semis and Conference Final before making the Sharks look like an OHL team. A Nashville Predators / Winnipeg Jets series might not be the NHL’s idea of a moneymaker, but true fans will love this series.
The Predators somehow lost two games to the Colorado Avalanche, and gave up some late goals and saw their defense underperform. It might be prudent to chalk that up to playing down to their opponent, which is never smart. Don’t count on them continuing to play that way.
Nashville went 3-1-1 against the Winnipeg Jets this season, but that doesn’t matter much now. The goal differential was just +2 for the Predators.
Let’s break this thing down.
The Offense and Forward Group
Filip Forsberg is exceptionally skilled. He is one of a select group of players that you watch in the NHL today and can be amazed by the moves they pull off (He’s no Crosby, but he’s impressive). Forsberg led the Preds with 64 points this season.
Forsberg is joined on the top line by Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen, three of the team’s four top scorers (Along with PK Subban, but more on him later). Arvidsson, Forsberg, Craig Smith and Kevin Fiala give the team four 20 goal scorers (Winnipeg has five).
The Predators third line of Austin Watson, Colton Sissions and Nick Bonino scored 19 points in the first round against the Avalanche. Okay then. Well, I wouldn’t count on that, but their depth is apparently dangerous.
Both teams are slightly above average in the faceoff circle, but Ryan Johansen is a real difference maker up the middle. Health is an issue for Winnipeg, as Nikolaj Ehlers is battered a bit. Patrik Laine missed time with an illness and Mathieu Perreault and Joel Armia are injured. Not great. Nashville is healthy up front.
They cannot, however, match up with the depth and speed of the Winnipeg Jets, who were second in the league in scoring. Make no mistake about it, at 7th, Nashville can score. Edge: Winnipeg Jets.
Defense and the Blue Line
Just as the Winnipeg Jets were second in goals scored, the Predators were second in goals allowed. Only the Kings had a better goal prevention squad. A lot of that has to do with a certain Finnish goaltender, but a lot of it has to do with the back end of the Preds.
No team boasts a better six guys on the blueline. Captain Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis are the top pair, followed by P.K. Subban and Matthias Eckholm. Alexei Emelin and Matt Irwin will likely be bringing up the rear.
Subban has been a revelation following his shocking trade in exchange for Shea Weber. A finals appearance and a President’s Trophy signal that trade as a huge win for Nashville. Montreal missed the playoffs this year, by the way.
What they don’t have is Dustin Byfuglien, and that’s a big deal. He was a monster in the first round. Yes, he’s 33, but he’s playing like he’s 23. P.K. Subban and Roman Josi might be quicker and have better offensive games, but they don’t terrify you.
What they do, however, is suffocate you. They clog lanes and get to pucks quickly. This is a top tier defensive unit, perhaps the best in the NHL. The Winnipeg Jets have a solid back end. No slouches, definitely not hindering their shot at a championship.
The Predators have a defense that could carry a mediocre offense to one. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, their offense is good too. Edge: Nashville Predators.
The Matchup of the Vezina Finalists
The true test of who wins this series will be goaltending. I guess it kind of always is since the team that scores more goals tends to win. That’s a bit of a cop out on my end. But if Connor Hellebuyck plays well, and Pekka Rinne stands on his head, bam, the Winnipeg Jets won’t move on.
Connor Hellebuyck proved in the first round that he isn’t afraid of the big moment. A young goaltender showing he’s up to the task of being The Guy™ in the playoffs is a nice thing. Ask the Penguins about Matt Murray.
The 24-year-old Hellebuyck, who may turn 25 during this playoff run, will be opposed by Pekka Rinne. Rinne, 35, is a Vezina finalist for the fourth time. He’s looking for his first win, but he’s always been rock steady as a netminder.
Rinne was okay in their first-round matchup and carries a .917 save percentage in 76 career playoff contests. That’s, uh, lower than I would have anticipated. It’s still good! But it’s not magnificent. But also, Nashville had a previous history of being knocked out of the playoffs early.
It may have even been his fault. But last year, he held a .930 save percentage in 22 games before Nashville was eliminated in the Stanley Cup Finals. He brought them there before, and you know he’s capable of bringing them back. He might not have the ‘Henrik Lundqvist put-the-team-on-your-back’ ability, but Rinne doesn’t have to.
Rinne has a bit better of a defensive squad in front of him, but that seems negligible. At this point, it could be anyone’s edge and anyone’s Vezina. I’m tempted to go with the Winnipeg Jets having the edge, as Hellebuyck is coming off of two shutouts and a better series. It seems, however, that there’s no clear winner here. Edge: Draw.
Anything less than seven games in this series will be a letdown. This is gearing up to be possibly the best series we’ve seen in some time. The two best teams in the NHL are fighting it out, and only one will have a chance to advance.
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I won’t attempt to break down the coaches, as both Paul Maurice and Peter Laviolette, as they do an excellent job on the benches. Most like, any coach in the playoffs is doing well enough. Laviolette won a cup with Carolina about a decade ago.
They’re both veteran coaches. They both know what’s on the line. You can expect a knock-out, drag down series.
I firmly believe the winner of this series will be hoisting the Stanley Cup when it’s all said and done. But what do I know?
The special teams will also play a big part. The Winnipeg Jets need their powerplay to start clicking. Nashville killed off 90% of the penalties they took in round one. That can’t continue if Winnipeg wants to win.
Predictions are sometimes lame and pointless, but hey, people like them. I like them as well, so I’ll take a shot at making one. You’ve already coaxed a Cup winner prediction and a 7 game set out of me, so why not?
Next: Winnipeg Jets Player Power Rankings
You all expect your boy to stick with the plucky kids from Manitoba, but I won’t do that. Home ice matters! And, unfortunately, three points in the regular season means that the Winnipeg Jets won’t have it here. I think each home game looms large, and Nashville prevails in the seventh game. Hey, I hope I’m wrong.