Why the Winnipeg Jets Cannot Trust Connor Hellebuyck

LAS VEGAS, NV - MAY 16: Connor Hellebuyck #37 of the Winnipeg Jets allows a second-period goal to James Neal (not pictured) #18 of the Vegas Golden Knights in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at T-Mobile Arena on May 16, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Isaac Brekken/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - MAY 16: Connor Hellebuyck #37 of the Winnipeg Jets allows a second-period goal to James Neal (not pictured) #18 of the Vegas Golden Knights in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at T-Mobile Arena on May 16, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Isaac Brekken/Getty Images)

The Winnipeg Jets reached the Western Conference Finals on the strength of their fantastic offense, their staunch defense and their all-world goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck. But he might be a mirage.

The Winnipeg Jets seem setup for long term success, mostly due to this young core.  Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba are the young guns.

Look, I don’t have to run through the whole roster. You know who the team has. But a huge part of their success, and any team’s, is their goaltending. Connor Hellebuyck was a force in the net for Winnipeg.

He set an American-born record for wins with 44 and is a finalist for the Vezina Award. As an RFA, he’s going to get paid. The Winnipeg Jets should pay him. Gotta lock up your stars if you have the space.

Hard decisions might be coming about who to extend, but the goalie is paramount. You need one. The Winnipeg Jets have a damn good one — but maybe they don’t. The NHL is full of cautionary tales. Goalie play tends to fluctuate greatly from year to year (unless you’re inhuman like Henrik Lundqvist).

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Sometimes a goaltender will seemingly break out, or turn a corner, only to slink into mediocrity. Hellebuyck wasn’t a top prospect, but he wasn’t a nobody, either.

Perhaps the biggest case of a goaltender experiencing early success and then flaming out is on the Jets roster.

Steve Mason burst onto the scene with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2008, winning the Calder Trophy and grabbing a Vezina nominee, as well. After  that? Things kinda went downhill.

Steve Mason seemed like he was destined for stardom, a great story as a rookie. Only, he never matched that success again and played his way out of Columbus. He had a few good years with the Flyers, but apparently not enough for them to give him an extension.

Mason then found himself in Winnipeg, the backup to the man who would certainly like to avoid his footsteps. I know this wasn’t Hellebuyck’s first season, but that doesn’t make him immune. Steve  Mason isn’t the only one who never replicated success.

In 53 starts last season, Hellebuyck had a .907 save percentage. That’s..bad. Yes, he was fantastic this  year.  He may have turned a corner, he may have developed. The defense in front of him improved,  and the offense handed him plenty of leads. They made things easy on him.

Maybe, when things aren’t easy, he crumbles. Who could know? Cam Talbot was so good with the Rangers for two seasons as Lundqvist’s backup, fans were suggesting the team should part ways  with the King and keep the backup.

They did not do that. Talbot has also never had the same success in Edmonton. He was solid for two seasons there, and took a step backwards this past year. Sounds a bit like Mason, no?

I could go on and on. Remember Andrew Hammond‘s ridiculous run with Ottawa? Frederik Anderson had a stellar debut as a rookie, and that proved to be his only season thus far with a save percentage over .920. Cam Ward keeps getting opportunities after throwing in one season over .920 with a bunch of really bad seasons.

Petr Mrazek started his career of well, looked like a building block, and then never replicated success. There’s no shortage of instances. Maybe Hellebuyck is a mirage. He was great all season, even in the playoffs.

But he looked a bit lost in that Vegas series. The rebounds are a problem. There are reasons to be scared of Hellebuyck. Maybe he’s fine. Maybe he’ll keep getting better and win the Vezina next season (I guess he still could this season too).

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The thing is, never trust a goaltender. Sometimes you unearth a gem, and he stays around and is good for years.  It happens. But sometimes, you get Steve Mason. Hopefully not twice.